Trump Impeachment

The odds of a Trump impeachment by House Democrats have climbed to a new three-month high on PredictIt.

The platform, which estimates the odds of political outcomes using Wisdom-of-the-Crowds pricing methodology – “a stock market for political outcomes” – has seen trading prices for a Trump impeachment climb from 11 cents on 24 March to 31 cents at the close of business last night, an almost three-fold increase over the course of just two months.

The momentum behind the rise in those odds is two-fold: firstly, Robert Mueller’s thinly veiled suggestion – albeit using tortured legal phrasing – that President Trump engaged in acts that qualify as obstruction of justice; and secondly, indications from Congress that a growing number of House Democrats are willing to pursue impeachment without the formal backing of Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, who has so far refused to endorse such a move out of fears that it could be counter-productive.

Pelosi Change of Heart?

However, in an interview last night on Jimmy Kimmel Live, even Pelosi appeared to indicate that her own ideas were changing on the subject.

Adopting a much more blunt stance on the subject than that which she had been known for up until now, she indicated her hope that Republicans would ultimately be able to understand Democrats on the issue, appearing to overtly hint that she is preparing her own terrain for impeachment.

“I think Times have found us,” she stated, adding “We have a defiance of the Constitution of the United States, and so when we go down this path …. it has to be clear [why] to the American people.”

On the other hand, British bookmakers are much more bearish on an impeachment outcome, with odds on a Trump first-term non-impeachment falling to an all-time odds-on low of 1/10 with Unibet, revised downwards from 1/4 on May 28th, the day before Mueller’s announcement.

Odds of a Trump impeachment, however, remain far behind the 54% registered on PredictIt in late January, after Buzzfeed’s revelations that federal investigators were exploring claims that Trump had instructed his then lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about the so-called Moscow Tower Project.