Polling Station

Over the course of the week, most British bookmakers have come to see a UK General Election in 2019 as being more likely than not, according to odds comparison site Oddschecker.

William Hill, Ladbrokes and Bet365 have all revised their odds downwards to 8/11 [implied probability: 58%] whilst Paddy Power and 888 have gone lower again, quoting prices of 3/5 on the outcome [implied probability: 62.5%].

However, political traders on Wisdom-of-the-Crowd betting platform Smarkets are marginally less bullish on the prospect of Theresa May calling elections to find a way out of the latest Brexit impasse, pricing the possibility as a near coin-toss at 50.5% at the time of writing.

Fourth Attempt on Cards

May, who saw parliament reject her negotiated deal with Europe for a third time on Friday despite last minute backing from a number of high profile Eurosceptics including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, appears now to be pinning her hopes on a yet another submission to parliament early next week. And according to some analysts, if the deal is rejected for a fourth time then only two realistic options remain – a crash-out No Deal or a General Election.

However, with a parliamentary majority having already signaled its refusal of a No Deal outcome on March 13, momentum has been building in favour of a new General Election whose probability has climbed from 35% to over 50% in the space of those same two weeks.

A number of political commentators see an extension to the current delay of Brexit as a pragmatic third possibility but it is one which lacks critical support even within the Remain camp.