New Zealand-based wisdom-of-the-crowds platform PredictIt has seen an increase in the trading price of Donald Trump completing his first term as President of the United Status.
Priced at $0.72c at the close of business on January 25th – the date on which the shut-down formally ended – the market has since seen an increase in value of Trump successfully remaining as president of the United States “until 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on December 31, 2019” which now trades at $0.76 [indicating a corresponding probability of 76%].
The trend is in stark contrast to wider analysis of the political cost of the shutdown on the president’s popularity as signs emerged of rare fractures among Trump’s base after the climb-down.
Trump himself entered into a spat with the Fox News Network, accusing two of its leading journalists of providing inaccurate coverage during his stand-off with a Democrat-dominated congress which has refused to approve specific funding for a US-Mexico border wall in its fiscal provisions for 2019.
Never thought I’d say this but I think @johnrobertsFox and @GillianHTurner @FoxNews have even less understanding of the Wall negotiations than the folks at FAKE NEWS CNN & NBC! Look to final results! Don’t know how my poll numbers are so good, especially up 19% with Hispanics?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 28, 2019
It currently remains unclear why markets are trading higher for a Trump successful first term-completion, but the trend appears to fit with observations made within a number of other Trump-related markets.
Despite the arrest of Roger Stone, Trump’s former campaign advisor, on the same day the shut-down ended there has been no material change in the odds quoted by bookmakers for a Trump impeachment before 2021 which remains quoted at evens by British bookmaker Unibet.
PredictIt’s prices on Trump emerging as the eventual winner of the 2020 presidential elections have also remained static over the same period.