A number of odds markets affected by Brexit have witnessed significant changes today after an open letter sent by Leader of the Opposition Jeremy to Prime Minister Theresa May as UK politicians continue to seek a way out of the current deadlock.
In the letter, Corbyn outlines a list of five key requirements which, if agreed to by May, would result in Labour offering its formal backing to the Conservative government’s eventual implementation of Brexit.
Most notably, Corbyn calls for a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union” as well as single market alignment to be enshrined in UK law. And the Labour leader has also called for an eight week extension to Article 50 to accommodate these requirements – which would see the current date for Brexit (29 March) pushed back to late May to help accommodate his proposals.
A large swathe of Brexit markets have been reacting to the changes since the release of the letter into the public domain late yesterday evening.
The implied odds of Brexit implementation by the end of March has fallen on political betting platform PredictIt from 32% to 30%.
On Smarkets, meanwhile, trading prices on a second referendum vote have also fallen around 2%, reflecting the wider backlash within the Labour camp as a result of the letter which has seen a number of MPs, most notably Remain advocate Owen Smith, now threatening to resign if Corbyn does not formally commit to a so-called People’s Vote.
Weaker than our six tests. Ignores conference policy. Downgrades demand for change to the binding Withdrawal Agreement to non-binding Declaration. Trusts the Tories to legislate to protect workers. And rejected already by the Dep. PM as ‘wishful thinking’. Time for a #PeoplesVote https://t.co/zJJHBSB3nV
— Owen Smith (@OwenSmith_MP) February 7, 2019
Smarket’s prices on the year of the next British General Election are also trading at a two month low for a 2019 outcome on the back of Corbyn’s move, although an election is still seen by trading markets as more likely than a second vote at this stage.
Markets on Corbyn becoming the next Prime Minister remain unmoved at the time of writing, with the Labour Leader still seen as favourite by British bookmakers at 4/1 to eventually replace Theresa May.