Polling Station

A general election is more likely to occur before any eventual second referendum on Brexit rather than vice-versa, according to the latest data emerging from Smarkets.

Odds on a General Election occurring first are trading – at the time of writing – at 1.4 [implied probability of 71.4%], and come on the back of the latest call by leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn this weekend for new elections.

2019 Seen as Most Likely for Next Election

As things stand, under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, the next elections are not officially due until May 5, 2022.

However, with Brexit currently at an impasse and momentum growing for a so-called People’s Vote to ratify the UK’s final terms with Europe on Brexit if such a deal can be achieved at all, a General Election may emerge as the United Kingdom’s best – and perhaps only – hope of achieving the nearest thing to a public mandate for the UK government’s next steps.

Whilst most odds markets identify Brexit as most likely occurring sometime in 2019 but after the current agreed exit date of 29 March, 2019 is currently trading on Smarkets as the most likely year for the next General Election itself.

2019 currently trades at 2.54 [implied probability of 39.4%], whilst 2020 and 2021 are priced at 6.2 [16.1%] and 8.0 [12.5%] respectively.

With a no-deal outcome looking increasingly on the cards, a General Election is seen by some analysts as the logical outcome of what has now become the UK’s greatest constitutional crisis in just over a century.