The odds of a Trump impeachment are further receding into the distance in light of the submission of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s widely anticipated report to the US Justice Department yesterday.
That is the conclusion of traders on Smarkets’ predictive real-time market of a first-term Trump impeachment. Trading at just over 70% [approximate odds: 3/7] in the hours preceding Mueller’s submission of the report, a No Impeachment outcome is currently trading at 75% [equating to odds of 1/3] at the time of writing.
The rise in odds reflects what has largely been positive commentary from the Trump and Republican camps since Mueller’s submission, particularly as news emerged that the report does not recommend any further indictments to the 34 already actioned by the Special Counsel’s office during its two year investigation into alleged Russian interference in the US presidential elections of 2016.
However, no other details concerning the report have yet been released into the public domain, although Attorney General William P. Barr has indicated in a public statement that at least some of its conclusions will be released to Congress and/or the general public, with some expecting a first round of the Attorney General’s own conclusions within the next few days.
Trump Not Out of the Woods?
However, whilst Republicans have largely been buoyant over the revelation that no further prosecutions are to be brought by Mueller himself, analysts speaking to the Guardian have pointed out that this does not preclude Mueller from referring further cases to other prosecutors, nor the possibility that the Attorney General himself may come to a set of different conclusions.
That may explain the reason for which a number of predictive markets have seen Trump’s odds of a first-term impeachment climbing whilst second-term impeachment odds have been revised downwards slightly, according to predictive markets aggregation website Oddschecker.