Trump Rally

The probabilities related to the impeachment of Donald Trump during his first term in office reached a new low for 2019 today, just as latest poll figures show that the US president is beginning to regain some of the popularity he had lost during the recent government shutdown – the longest in US history.

According to Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform predictit.org, the trading markets for a Trump first-term impeachment are now pricing the outcome at 43 cents, corresponding to an equivalent probability of 43% – the lowest recorded price yet seen in 2019 for the market, and one which has been in steady decline (from a high of 54 cents recorded on January 17) since the shutdown itself ended on January 25.

The Teflon President

Opinion Poll analysis from FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates polls on Trump’s popularity from a broad range of opinion poll providers including YouGov and Rasmussen, shows that the so-called Teflon President’s current approval rating is now estimated to be 41.7% – a mere five basis points behind the the 42.2% approval rating registered on December 22nd when the shutdown came into effect.

Odds markets and polling markets appear to be agreement with wider analysis that President Trump enjoys unflagging support from just over 35% of the American electorate, the so-called Base, that demonstrates resolute indifference to the controversies Trump may be acquainted with.

It has also been the reason for which a Democrat-majority Congress has been keen to distance itself from talk of impeachment – such a move would likely consolidate the Base further, and suggests that current prices for a lay bet on a Trump first-term impeachment have strayed into value territory.

The betting markets for a Trump impeachment are defined in their majority as any move which will “approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment” against the president, and do not require that such a move results in a successful removal from office for the conditions of such a bet to be satisfied.