With the Tories losing in excess of 1330 seats and Labour losing just over 80 seats amidst the 248 authorities holding a vote this week from a total of 408 UK councils, British bookmakers have been revising their odds of the two main parties’ chances for the next general election.
The Tories are now quoted at 11/10 [implied probability of 47%] to win the most seats in parliament – not necessarily a majority – at the next general election, contrasting with odds of around 8/11 [implied probability of 57.9%] that had been quoted as late as late March.
Odds of a Labour victory in the next general election, on the other hand, have been revised downwards from 11/8 [implied probability of 42.1%] to 10/11 [implied probability of 52.4%], with Labour now seen by bookmakers as most likely to head up its own coalition government.
Combined Labour / Tory Vote at Historic Low
Extrapolating this weekend’s results, the BBC has projected that both Labour and Tory now claim a mere 28% of the vote – meaning that the two parties represent a collective total of 56% of the national vote, thought to be the lowest combined share of the two parties in the post-War era.
The losses inflicted by both parties – albeit much more severe in the case of the Tories – are being interpreted by commentators as symptoms of the wider frustrations of the pro-Brexit camps of each party.
However, that analysis appears to be impaired in part by the fact that the Liberal Democrats and Greens have been the biggest winners of these elections.
The biggest loser, on the other hand, appears to have been Boris Jonson who had originally tweeted – before quickly deleting – that he had himself just voted in the local elections, before it was pointed out to him that London’s boroughs were not holding elections of any kind.
Boris Johnson (former mayor and current resident of London) tweeted that he just voted in the local elections.
— James Felton (@JimMFelton) 2 mai 2019