Odds on a Theresa May 2018 exit have shortened on the back of continuing fall-out from the UK’s draft withdrawal agreement for Brexit with the EU today.
Both Skybet and Unibet – the only British bookmakers who continue to offer a market for such an outcome – have revised their odds from 3-1 (implied probability: 25%) to 2-1 (implied probability: 33%) as rumours grow of a possible resignation by Brexit secretary Dominic Raab.
“I’m about as ardent a Brexiteer you can get,” stated conservative political commentator Ian Dale in an interview with Newsnight just as fresh details emerged of the withdrawal agreement, “but I would choose to remain in the EU because this is worse than no-deal.”
Conservative Brexiteers to Resign En Masse?
The agreement outlines some exceptional arrangements for Northern Ireland, including non-customs checks which would not apply to England, Scotland or Wales – a measure which will likely be anathema to the Conservative Party’s coalition partners, the DUP, upon which the government’s current majority depends.
The draft also provides for commitment by the British government to a string of non-regression clauses “to prevent the UK from bringing in lower standards on social, environmental and labour regulations such as working hours,” according to The Guardian.
In other words, May appears to have negotiated the foundation of a Brexit deal which will effectively give the EU de-facto control over certain policy areas which stands in opposition to Brexiteers’ hopes of reclaiming sovereignty.
That has brought in its wake rumours of a coordinated series of resignations among the Conservative Party’s staunchest Brexiteers which could trigger a May resignation and new national elections.
Bookies, however, have not so far not been revising their odds on a Jeremy Corbyn premiership as a result of today’s developments. Corbyn continues to be priced at 4/1, unmoved from the same price in mid-September, indicating a possible move into value bet territory.