Brexit Polling Card


Odds on a second referendum on Brexit have been shortened as Prime Minister Theresa May last night survived a vote of no confidence, tabled by Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn.

A second referendum, which had been priced at 13/8 [implied probability 38.1%] before the beginning of the current week, had initially seen its odds revised downwards to 11/8 [probability 42.1%] as parliament overwhelmingly rejected Theresa May’s transitional Brexit deal.

However, those odds were cut further to 11/10 by Betfred as May’s survival in office effectively leaves Brexit at an impasse.

With the EU appearing unlikely to offer any further margin for renegotiation this late in the proceedings, and a strong majority in both the Remain and Pro-Brexit camps hoping to avoid a No Deal scenario, momentum appears to be gaining once more for calls on a Second Referendum  – an outcome which had appeared to have been losing steam over the last two months, but which now ranks as one of the most popular bets on the market, according to odds aggregation site OddsChecker.

No Deal Market Revisions

A number of other markets have also undergone revisions as a result of May’s survival of the no-confidence motion.

Most notably, odds of a No-Deal exit being enacted on or before March 29 (the date by which, as things currently stand, the UK is expected to formally leave the EU) have been cut by both Ladbrokes and Coral. Previously priced at 7/2 [implied probability of 22.2%] prior to this week’s two crucial parliamentary votes, the same outcome has now been slashed to 5/2 [implied probability of 28%].

Whilst a request by the UK to extend Article 50 would likely be accommodated by the European Union, the option appears to be one that May is reluctant to explore, given the hostility that such a move would be likely to generate.