In 2014, the Scottish referendum on whether to leave the UK or remain within it resulted in a reasonably comfortable victory for the pro-Union camp who carried off 55% of the vote.
Although the results were closer than some analysts had predicted at the time, the bookmakers’ odds for a Scottish exit had remained within a relatively narrow band over the course of the entire referendum campaign – reflecting a probability that went no higher than 33% at its height, and falling to around 20% as the referendum itself approached.
Scottish Exit Quote at Historic High
Brexit, of course, has changed everything – but the extent of that change is best gauged by bookmakers’ prices on the outcome of an eventual new referendum.
There is currently no suggestion of such a referendum at the time of writing, as Scotland awaits – like everyone else – the eventual outcome of the current Brexit negotiations, but long-term punters are increasingly identifying an eventual Scottish exit from the Union as a potential value bet.
Betfair and Betway – the only two bookmakers to offer any kind of prices on the outcome of a potential new Scottish referendum – are now offering no higher than evens [implied probability: 50%] on the outcome, a historic high for the market.
Scottish First Minister urged Scots back in October to demonstrate patience whilst the “fog of Brexit” waits to clear. But with 45% of all bets on the market now in favour of a future exit, an increasing number of professional bettors have identified that fog as a strong indicator that the outcome may have entered into value bet territory.