Odds markets on Donald Trump picking up the GOP 2020 nomination have been witnessing a steady decline over the past week, with prices on the outcome now having fallen to a six-month low and reflecting an implied probability of no more than 30%, according to Wisdom of the Crowds prediction website Predictit.
Whilst it has been a particularly difficult month for the US president, most observers had nonetheless expected that the Trump presidency would simply weather the latest in a long series of hard knocks – this time, that of seeing former lawyer Michael Cohen handed three years’ jail-time for organising so-called hush money payments during the presidential campaign of 2016 to two women involved in previous affairs with Donald Trump.
Nor did the prospect of a similar fate for Trump’s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn – charged with lying to the FBI about the nature of a meeting he held with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in 2016 – appear to serve up the nail in the coffin that many of Trump’s opponents had been hoping for.
“It’s the Economy, Stupid.”
However, it now appears that a section of Trump’s base is turning against him as clear signs of trouble emerge for the American economy.
The Dow Jones has so far lost ten percent this month in what has been described as its worst December performance since the Great Depression.
As a result, PredictIt, which leverages a Wisdom-of-the-Crowds approach for defining its odds markets, has seen prices of a Trump 2020 re-election drop to a six-month low.
Having traded as high as $0.34 [implied probability of 34%] only four days ago, the outcome is now priced at $0.27 [implied probability of 27%], and may fall yet further as two thirds of economists are now predicting a recession for 2020 – just ahead of the next presidential election.