UK Parliament


The PredictIt platform’s market for Brexit has undergone a crash in trading value over the last forty eight hours as commentators indicate that they are increasingly convinced that MPs will reject Theresa May’s transitional deal in parliament later today.

Having traded as high as $0.41 as late as seven days ago, shares in the outcome for the execution of Brexit on or before March 29 declined to $0.30 on January 12 before crashing further to $0.21 at the time of writing.

PredictIt is a New Zealand-based project which employs a Wisdom-of-the-Crowd approach to aggregate the opinions of anonymous independent analysts via a mechanism that allows outcomes on an event to be purchased and sold via its trading desk.

Uncertainty Continues to Reign

Priced at $0.75 as late as early November, PredictIt’s continued price declines on its Brexit market have reflected the growing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations themselves.

It is not entirely clear what a rejection in parliament this afternoon will imply for the UK’s future relationship with Europe, but a number of analysts are expecting that a formal request will be made to extend Article 50 – something which the EU has informally acknowledged that it may be willing to accommodate, although such a move will be likely to trigger further disquiet within the Brexiteer camp.

According to the BBC, Prime Minister Theresa May assembled her entire backbench team yesterday evening in a last-bid attempt to garner support for her transitional deal on the UK’s first so-called “meaningful vote” on the Brexit negotiations. “Five Conservative Brexiteer MPs who have been critics of the withdrawal agreement have now said they will support the government,” it stated, indicating that there may still be some room for a surprise manoeuvre.