Labour MP Yvette Cooper’s plans to outlaw a No Deal Brexit have successfully jumped their first parliamentary hurdle late last night as MPs voted by a majority of one to approve a bill that, if formally passed into law as expected, will legally oblige the British Prime Minister to seek an extension to negotiations with Europe if no formal plan is in place to manage the UK’s withdrawal.
This latest development from parliament is set to reverse a trend witnessed over the last twenty-four hours during which an “avalanche” of British punters are believed to have swarmed in behind a No Deal outcome as the current Brexit deadline approaches.
Cooper’s new legislation is set to render a No Deal Brexit an impossibility – working from the assumption that the EU itself will continue to accommodate provisions for avoiding a No Deal scenario.
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Last night’s parliamentary developments also cut against the grain of recent trends relating to the date of the UK’s exit – according to Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform Smarkets, the implied probability of Brexit occurring by August 2019 had climbed from 31% to 37% over the twenty-four hours previous to the parliamentary vote, whilst the corresponding probability for a 2020 date had fallen from 20% to 15% over the same period – movements which appeared oblivious to the potential impact of Cooper’s all-party push for preventing a No Deal Outcome.
Punters on Predictit, another Wisdom-of-the-Crowds platform offering political markets, appear to be behaving more rationally with trading over the last twenty-four hours implying a fall in the probability – from 14% to 12% – of Brexit occurring before the current former deadline.
Cooper’s initiative, in other words, arguably presents an opportunity within some markets for punters looking for value bets related to an extended Brexit deadline. However, that analysis assumes that the House of Lords – which needs to sign off on the new legislation – will bring no surprises to the equation and will follow suit with the Houses of Parliament’s own decision.