Betfred has shortened its odds on a second Brexit referendum to 9/4 – an implied probability of 30% – after Jeremy Corbyn appeared to declare that he would respect a Labour Conference vote to that effect.
The motion has been tabled for discussion today but odds markets appear to be working from the assumption that it will pass.
Speaking on the Andrew Marr program a few days ahead of today’s vote, when asked by Marr if he would feel bound to honour any such steps taken by his party’s conference in favour of a move towards a second referendum, Corbyn answered: “Obviously.”
Corbyn has also pointed out, however, that his preference would be for a general election before the UK heads into its so-called Brexit transition period. Despite the increasing spectre of a potential crisis-inducing no-deal scenario as the UK approaches its March 29 European exit, odds offered by bookmakers on a 2019 General Election have nonetheless remained more or less steady at around 7/4.
Although the new Labour party motion is ostensibly being sold by its advocates as a “people’s consultation on any final Brexit deal,” most political commentators appear to be in agreement that the move can be interpreted as a push by Remainers seeking an effective second referendum.