As new calls emerge for Transport Minister Chris Grayling to resign over accusations of incompetence and a lack of preparation for a No-Deal Brexit scenario on March 29, Bookmakers’ odds on the prospects of the UK crashing out of the EU without formal transitional arrangements in place have risen to a new 30-day high.
Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform PredictIt, which offers its users the ability to trade shares in a No-Deal outcome in real-time, is currently pricing the probability of such an event at 26%, a marked increase from the 11% pricing witnessed in mid-January.
In reality, however, the true probability of a No-Deal Brexit is likely much higher again – as PredictIt’s No-Deal Brexit market only relates to the current expected exit date of March 29, and does not account for the possibility of a No-Deal scenario arising on the back of an extension to Article 50.
Corbyn Waits for May Feedback
In the meantime, Jeremy Corbyn continues to wait for a reply to his open letter addressed to Theresa May this week in which the leader of the opposition called for a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union” as well as single market alignment to be enshrined in UK law.
The move, which has been criticised by hard line Brexiters and Remainers alike, is seen by some analysts as offering the UK’s only realistic chance of finding margin for renegotiation of the current deal in place with the EU, negotiated by May back in November.
Commenting on Corbyn’s proposition, the European Parliament’s representative in the Brexit negotiations, Guy Verhofstadt, stated that it offered the UK its best hope for finding the “broadest possible majority” as the current impasse continues, thus hinting that the development may offer room for a resumption of talks between the UK and EU.
Whilst a No-Deal outcome is largely seen as the least preferred option for both Brexiteers and Remainers, it has emerged in recent months as the single most likely outcome as both sides fail to offer up an alternative which enjoys greater support.