Brexit Impasse


The current impasse arising from the latest head-to-head between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May has left odds on a No Deal Brexit at a historic low.

At the time of writing, the outcome is being piced as low as 3/1 by some bookmakers including Ladbrokes and Coral who have both revised their markets downwards from a quote of 4/1 at the beginning of the year.

With new cross-parliamentary talks at an impasse, May – whose own Brexit proposals were defeated in parliament last week but who survived a subsequent vote of no confidence – has not reciprocated on demands from the opposition that a No Deal outcome be removed from the agenda.

Impasse Extension

As a result, Labour is now backing a new move initiated by MP Yvette Cooper that will seek a parliamentary vote to extend Article 50 to buy more time for further negotiations with Europe.

However, without any indication of even an elementary roadmap for such negotiations, and with European negotiators having already stated on a number of occasions that there will be no material change in their own position, May’s original proposition is so far the only outcome that has enjoyed any kind of significant support – albeit one that was the object of a historic defeat in the House of Commons.

As a result, a No Deal outcome – despite enjoying no material support from any faction – is beginning to appear as the most likely outcome in the complex Gordian Knot that is Brexit and, at 3/1, appears increasingly priced in value bet territory.