May Resignation

Whilst the political fall-out from Theresa May’s announcement of her impending resignation in June continues, both British bookmakers and real-time traders of odds markets appear to be in agreement that there is little to no impact of May’s decision on the timing of the next general election.

In fact – and perhaps counter-intuitively – traders on Wisdom-of-the-Crowd trading platform Smarkets saw a fall in the trading price of a 2019 general election, thus implying a corresponding fall in the odds. Those odds fell from 32.8% at the time of May’s memorably tearful announcement to 30.3% at the time of writing.

Likewise, most major bookmakers including Paddy Power and Coral have simply not revised their pre-resignation prices. That said, William Hill has revised its own odds of a 2019 general election down to 7/4 from 3/1.

Analysts and Punters Remain Uncertain

Whilst Labour and other opposition parties in parliament have been calling for a snap general election following May’s announcement, the current Conservative government has no constitutional obligation to do until 2022 – when its current mandate runs out.

And given the near equivalence in odds and trading prices for a 2019, a 2020 and 2021 general election – each currently priced at around 30% – the only certainty that can be drawn in relation to the UK’s next parliamentary ballot is that analysts simply have no confidence in making a call as to when that might be.

A Sky poll on the subject appear to indicate that a majority of Britons wish to see a snap general election, but it appears at this stage unlikely that Theresa May’s replacement – likely Borish Johnson – will pay heed to the fact.

UK Sky Poll