Democratic Candidates

PredictIt, a platform which offers trading markets specifically for political outcomes, has this morning announced the creation of a new market for the upcoming Democratic nominees debate in late June.

The debates – which will be held in two parts over June 26 and June 27 – constitute the first of three rounds of debates, with Round Two scheduled for the end of July and Round Three scheduled for mid-September.

Chance for Outsiders to Shine

There are now a whopping twenty-four candidates running for the Democratic 2020 nomination – however, only a maximum field of twenty candidates will be allowed to participate in the debates: those who have managed to score more than 1% across three Democratic Party-approved national polls.

Any candidate who fails to qualify for the debate will likely see their candidacy ended as a result. And whilst those who fail to make it over the first hurdle are largely unrecognised faces on the political landscape, New York mayor Bill de Blasio – who can be more of a recognised face in the UK than many parts of the US – may find himself amongst them, according to one candidate ranking metric organised by Rolling Stone.

The debates likely represent the only real opportunity for the outside candidates to make their mark.

Amongst the early contenders for winning the limelight from Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are:

  • Andrew Yang: his Universal Basic Income proposal appears to be attracting significant interest across the US media landscape as he presses the urgent – but largely unaddressed question – of impending mass unemployment arising from increased automation in the workplace over the next decade.
  • Pete Buttigieg: comes from a military background and is arguably the leading intellectual heavyweight in the field of candidates. Along with AOC, appears to one of the few Democrats that can hold his own on Twitter against Trump, and is aiming to become the first openly gay US president.
  • Elizabeth Warren: already enjoys a high profile due to her long career on Capitol Hill but did not appear to be making any kind of significant in-roads with her nomination campaign until very recently.

Whilst PredictIt is thought to offer the only market so far on the debates, a small number of British bookmakers are expected to offer their own markets in the coming days.