The Brexit market of non-profit platform PredictIt, which employs a Wisdom-of-the-Crowd strategy to price the odds on a range of high profile political outcomes, has stabilised over the Christmas period following what had been 90-days of free-fall.
Asking the question, “At or before 11:59:59 p.m. March 29, 2019 London time, the treaties of the European Union shall no longer apply to the United Kingdom,” a Yes share in the market had been trading as high as 80c – indicating a WoC-defined probability of 80% on the outcome – at the end of September, but subsequently entered into steady decline before eventually consolidating itself over the course of the current holiday period to trade at just over 44c.
The consolidation likely reflects a newly emerging confidence on the part of Theresa May in her ability to seek approval from the British parliament for her current withdrawal agreement with the EU – first published back in November – which has become the object of bitter criticism from both within the pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit camps.
Analysts have been indicating that a growing number of MP’s are becoming uncomfortable at the prospect of a No-Deal scenario ahead of mid-January’s parliamentary vote on whether to approve May’s plan.
PredictIt had initially indicated that the original exit deadline of 29 March was likely to be respected. However, pricing for the outcome fell as low as 28c in late November but, having since climbed back to 44c, it appears that the market now feels that it is increasingly difficult to make a clear call – with a non-exit in March considered only somewhat more likely, priced at 56c.