Former US vice-president Joe Biden has re-emerged as the most likely candidate to receive the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential race, according to new data from Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform PredictIt.
Biden, whose odds had plummeted on the back of allegations of “creepy” behaviour towards women, had seen his implied odds fall overnight in late March from 24% to 15%.
However, over the course of April, trading on a Biden nomination began to demonstrate signs of recovery, with Biden finally emerging ahead of Sanders once more late yesterday evening. A Biden nomination is currently trading at 23 cents [implied probability: 23%], 1 cent higher than Sanders.
Sanders Remains Bookmakers’ Favourite
However, whilst Biden is now once more considered the leading candidate amongst real-time traders for the Democratic Nomination, Bernie Sanders continues to occupy his place as outright favourite amongst British bookmakers.
Priced as low as 10/3 by some bookies [implied odds: 23%, William Hill], Sanders – who was pipped to the post by Hillary Clinton during the last race for the Democratic Nomination – has been mounting a strong campaign amidst a field of what is now nineteen declared candidates, and his odds have more or less remained unchanged since formally declaring his candidacy.
Whilst Biden and Sanders lead the field, at 76 and 77 years of age respectively, they also feature as the oldest candidates on the list, leaving some to question their ability to confront what will likely be a gruelling campaign for both the Democratic Nomination and the US Presidency itself.
Biden is as yet to formally declare his candidacy for the nomination but is expected to do so in the coming days. The first nomination debates have been scheduled for June whilst it remains unclear when the nomination itself will be made.