Joe Biden Campaign

Joe Biden’s chances of achieving the Democratic Party’s nomination for the 2020 presidential elections have hit a six-month low, according to polling aggregation website RealClearPolitics.

Biden, whose chances were rated as high as 41% in early May according to RCP’s methodology, has since seen his probability dip to a score of 26% at time of writing, marking a six-month low.

Biden remains the leading candidate amongst the twenty effective candidates still in the running. However, recent surges from both Elizabeth Warren and particularly Kamala Harris appear to consolidate the wider view that the former vice-president’s nomination campaign is quickly losing steam.

Harris Gathering Momentum

Kamala Harris’ rising star has largely been due to a dominant performance in the first round of debates held in late June, appearing authoritative and taking centre stage when she quipped to some of her bickering co-candidates“Hey guys, you know what, America does not want to witness a food fight, they want to know how we’re going to put food on the table.” 

As a result, the Senator from California has emerged as the leading candidate on at least one political stockmarkets platform. At the time of writing, she leads as outright favourite on Smarkets where she is currently trading at odds of 3.1 (European-format, corresponding to a probability of 32%).

On the other hand, Harris is currently only rated as having a 15.2% chance of gaining the nomination, according to RCP’s aggregated figures – although she has also shown the largest jump of any candidate since the debates began.

Whilst there is some road still to go – the second round of debates has been scheduled for the end of July whilst a third round has been provisionally scheduled for mid-September – a number of analysts currently concur that the Democratic nomination will ultimately become a two-horse race between Biden and one of Harris, Sanders and Warren in its latter stages.