With the current impasse in negotiations showing no signs of giving way, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is now quoting odds of 10/1 that Brexit will result in Eurostar trains not running “through the Channel Tunnel for 7 consecutive days or more in 2019.”
Those odds, which equate to an implied probability of just under 10%, look set to fall further over the coming weeks. The prospect of a No-Deal Brexit appears to have taken the form of a growing inevitability, as yet further complications emerged last night on the British political landscape with news that seven Labour MPs have now split from the party in a bid to set up their own eventual political formation.
The prospect of major impact on rail travel between the UK and the continent had already been raised in a document published by the British government back in October. However, little attention was paid to the warning at the time.
Brexit Markets Flourishing
Paddy Power’s Brexit-Eurostar market is only one of a number of markets created by the bookmaker in recent weeks in relation to what has become the UK’s greatest constitutional crisis in a century.
Featuring among the Irish bookmakers’ “Brexit specials” are markets on food rationing – the implementation of coffee and bread rations are quoted at 20/1 and 16/1 respectively, with the UK government to announce official food rationing in 2019 being priced as low as 12/1.
Markets on Brexit’s impact on British football have also been created – with no transfers to occur in the upcoming Premier League summer window being priced at 16/1, whilst odds of 50/1 are being offered on the absence of English clubs in next year’s Champions’ League.