Whilst there are twenty-four declared candidates in the running for the Democratic Party’s presidential primaries, only two – Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – have been seen as serious challengers for the eventual nomination.
There has, however, been a number of indicators in recent weeks suggesting that the field may now be shifting in favour of Elizabeth Warren as a serious third runner.
Warren, who is 69 and serving as Senator for Massachusetts since 2013, has seen her trading price on PredictIt rise from 6 cents exactly three months ago to an all-time high of 15 cents at the time of writing – the largest increase of any Democratic candidate over the same period, and largely at the expense of Biden who has seen his own price slip from 34 cents in early May to a current price of 28 cents.
Trading prices on a Sanders nomination appear to have flatlined, having traded in the narrow 17-19 cents bracket for almost one month now.
Warren’s re-emerging star appears to be sourced to two specific factors: a noticeable increase in throughput on American television in recent weeks, compounded the media attention arising from her criticism of Biden’s conservative-leaning positions on abortion; and a Biden campaign which appears to have become increasingly tangled on the issue of the ex-Vice President’s behaviour around women – not helped by a series of failed “joke” retorts on the subject by Biden himself that has likely left his own PR campaign team reeling.
Warren was felt in the past to have been penalised for her unwillingness to run with either an explicit “Progressive” or “Establishment” Democrat tag. She has generally been happier to be seen to have a foot in both camps, having a strong track record for pursuing corporate malfeasance whilst simultaneously distancing herself from any kind of socialist label.
Such a strategy was once seen as the reason for her inability to make a serious breakthrough in the Democratic contest but is now identified as an asset in her bid to be seen as a viable candidate across the Democratic board.