With the UK parliament lining up for its first meaningful vote on Brexit tomorrow, most commentators have been predicting a defeat for Theresa May’s so-called “transitional” deal – which appears set to leave Brexit negotiations at a dead-lock, adding to general uncertainty and increasing the likelihood of calls for a new general election.
One benefactor, however, is Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn, who had been priced more or less neck-in-neck with former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson at odds of 4/1 by most bookmakers over the last few months to become the UK’s next Prime Minister.
With parliament looking set to disapprove of May’s deal, however, Corbyn has emerged as outright favourite with bookmakers Unibet, Betvictor and 888 who are all now pricing the outcome at 9/2. Johnson’s own odds have slipped backwards slightly to 5/1.
May has cautioned against a rejection of her deal, suggesting that it could pivot parliament towards initiating steps for a second EU referendum in a bid to avoid a potential No Deal scenario, stating that “People’s faith in the democratic process and their politicians would suffer catastrophic harm.”
Despite the Prime Minister’s apprehensions, British bookmakers appear to be sharing a consensus on the matter as they unanimously provide odds-on prices for the outcome.
Both Paddy Power and Betfair are pricing a second EU referendum at 4/9, suggesting an implied probability 63.6% with over 60% of punters agreeing with that assessment, according to Oddschecker.
Tomorrow’s parliamentary vote had originally been scheduled for mid-December but was pushed back as May has tried to buy time for further concessions from the EU. However, no significant changes to the deal negotiated with Europe have been achieved in the interim, with commentators now increasingly calling into question May’s ability to hold onto her position as the potential of a No Deal scenario creeps closer.