The implied probability of a No Deal Brexit has trebled over the last forty-eight hours, according to New Zealand-based Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform PredicitIt.
At the close of trading on Monday, prices on the UK crashing out of the EU with no formal framework were hovering at just over 9 cents [implying a corresponding 9% probability on the outcome].
At the time of writing, however, those prices have now climbed to just under 27 cents [implied probability: 27%], with momentum still climbing in an upward direction as both the British government and the EU continue to struggle with finding a suitable mechanism for extending Article 50.
Uncertainty Piles Up
Uncertainty surrounding Brexit has been compounded this week by the refusal of House of Commons Speaker John Bercow to accommodate a further submission of Theresa May’s current deal – negotiated last November – to parliament.
The deal had already been roundly rejected twice by MPs, but look set for another submission from May who appears to have been banking on brinkmanship to whip members of her own party – as well as elsewhere – into finally allowing it to pass.
However, citing parliamentary protocol dating back to the 17th century, Bercow has stated that doing so violates the basic tenets of standard parliamentary decorum, pointing out that a re-submission of any kind cannot be allowed without “substantial changes” to the original.
The trading spikes in a No Deal outcome coincide with a fall in odds across the board amongst British bookmakers, with Irish bookmaker Paddy Power cutting its own odds overnight from 4/1 to 11/4