The chances of Brexit being implemented in 2019 are an effective coin toss, according to new markets just published by bookmakers in light of the latest deadline extension agreed between the EU and UK this week..
Bet365, the only British bookmaker which currently offers a market on a 2019 exit date, is quoting evens on the outcome whilst traders on Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform Predictit have priced a UK exit from the EU before November 1st 2019 at 55 cents at the time of writing, corresponding to an implied probability of 55%.
In the absence of polling, the two metrics appear to provide the best gauge yet of wider public sentiment on the future direction of Brexit.
Such odds on a binary outcome (exit vs. no exit) generally indicate wider uncertainty on where things may go from here. And rumours of an upcoming legal challenge to this second extension of Article 50 seem likely to add to the general confusion as both the Tory and Labour parties seek to negotiate a compromise with each other and the EU on the way forward.
BREXIT UPDATE: Minister David Lidington says the Tories and Labour are “testing out” each other’s Brexit ideas. The referendum was 1024 days ago so a good sign we’ve reached the testing phase so quickly…
— Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) April 14, 2019
Other Brexit markets, however, remain relatively stable – notably with odds on a second referendum priced by most bookmakers at around 9/4, reflecting little to no movement since at least late January.