Theresa May, Brexit

A little over two months ago, the outcome of a fully-enacted Brexit not occurring before 2022 had been priced by bookies at 9/2 [implied odds: 18%].

Today, those same odds have been slashed to 2/1 [implied odds: 33%] as news emerged this morning of a confidence vote within the Conservative Party on Theresa May’s leadership.

The vote, expected to take place later today at 18:00 GMT, was triggered after May’s own decision to cancel yesterday’s parliamentary vote to approve the deal she herself had negotiated with the EU in November, and the final result is expected sometime after 20:00 GMT – although bookmakers’ prices are currently leaning heavily in favour of a May victory.

New Layer of Complexity

Explaining her reasons for cancelling yesterday’s vote, the Prime Minister acknowledged that it was likely to be heavily rejected and has asked instead for more time to return to Brussels to seek further amendments to the current deal, despite the fact that European Council President Donald Tusk had already reiterated that there could be no further renegotiation on any aspect of the deal.

For Brexit to be enacted, it requires a deal that has been approved by both the UK and the EU with an agreed timeline. Formally, the UK is due to leave the EU on March 29 2019 but, given the complexities involved, both negotiating parties have already agreed in principle to a transition timeline to streamline the process.

However, with no formal agreement yet in place and little sign of one on the near horizon, and with opposition parties and elements from within the Conservative Party itself calling for subsequent approval of the deal by the UK public, the chances of a fully-enacted Brexit occurring sooner rather later appear to be rapidly diminishing.

And on the back of today’s latest developments, OddsChecker has observed a new rush of punters placing a wager on a “Brexit not before 2022” outcome, representing 48% of all such bets on the market.