Brexit

Brexit will not be implemented before 2021 – that is the new conclusion of Wisdom-of-the-Crowd predictions platform Smarkets where the outcome was today evaluated by traders on the £175,000 market as the most likely of all [probability 36.6%] for the first time since the creation of the market itself in August 2017.

That figure contrasts with the 10.6% probability that the same outcome was judged to have by traders exactly one year ago.

Implementation of Brexit sometime between September and December now sits as the second most likely outcome, and is trading marginally behind a “Not Before 2021” scenario on 36.5%, although it has been losing noticeable ground in recent days.

A 2020 Brexit is trading at just over 15%.

Uncertainty Continues to Reign

Despite having negotiated a six-month extension to Brexit with the EU in April, the UK remains in Brexit limbo – no material progress has been made in terms of what an eventual deal will look like.

Cross-party talks between the two leading parties in the UK parliament – Labour and Conservative – have collapsed, with Jeremy Corbyn notably complaining that “the divisions in the Conservative Party mean the government is negotiating with no authority and no ability that I can see to actually deliver anything.”

The development appears to have been the main impetus to today’s trades on Smarkets which increasingly appear to be favouring a longer-term view of Brexit’s eventual implementation.