There are now a mere thirty one days until the UK’s formal exit from the European Union on March 29. And, as things stand, there is no formal agreement in place between the UK and the EU on how Brexit is to be managed.
With the prospect of a No Deal Brexit now looming on the near horizon, many analysts had already concluded that it was a foregone conclusion. Most MPs clearly do not favour the outcome but no faction in parliament has as yet been able to table an alternative that could garner enough of a majority to help avoid it.
And so it is in this context that leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn has now taken a major political gamble in stating that he is willing to accommodate a second referendum on Brexit that would include the option of the UK remaining in the EU at the risk of splitting his own party, if Labour is unable to seek approval for its own Brexit proposals in parliament this week.
“If it’s a choice between a disastrous Tory Brexit or no deal, and remaining, then that is what we will have to do,” stated Labour’s shadow foreign secretary shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry.
The news has resulted in overnight falls in the odds of a second Brexit referendum across a number of political betting platforms.
Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform Predict has seen trading prices on a second referendum climb overnight from 12 cents to 21 cents, whilst the price on the same outcome had been trading as low as 7 cents only seven days ago.
Smarkets, which offers a market on whether the UK will hold another In/Out referendum before 2020, has witnessed a similar jump in prices, with the outcome now priced at 29.4% in comparison to a mere 18.8% in mid-February.
However, the reaction of odds markets to the news of a potential second referendum outcome has become tempered after further statements this afternoon from Prime Minister Theresa May who has now formally tabled plans for a possible extension to Article 50. If passed, the move will allow for a delay of the UK’s exit from the EU, and provide further margin for negotiation of a formal exit agreement.