A consensus has been emerging over the last fortnight that Joe Biden has become the outstanding favourite to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 race for the White House.
Biden is now priced at 34 cents [implying a corresponding probability of 34%] on Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform PredictIt to win the nomination, when he was largely neck and neck with Sanders up until late April.
Biden’s recent surge coincided with his announcement on April 25 that he was officially seeking the Democratic nomination, indicating that the market had largely been under-pricing his credentials as a runner up until then – something few analysts had expected.
Looks to me like it’s going to be SleepyCreepy Joe over Crazy Bernie. Everyone else is fading fast!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 10 mai 2019
Mainstream Media Misguaging Sanders Once Again?
This is not unfamiliar territory, however, for Sanders. When he ran against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic Primaries, he pulled off a series of wins in key states in a much closer race than had been expected. And there are signs that the same thing may be happening this time around.
Whilst Biden may hope to benefit from reflected glory amongst Democrats of having served as Vice President under Obama, he has failed to demonstrate any real bite on his previous campaign trails. Sanders, on the other hand, is a proven orator with a knack for galvanising his audience.
Joe Biden ran for president twice; didn’t win a single primary
Bernie Sanders ran for president once; won 22 primaries
Why does anybody think Biden is more electable?
— Rob (@philosophrob) May 11, 2019
And Sanders, unlike Biden, has managed to avoid controversies that raise questions surrounding his moral character.
Biden’s surge, in other words, appears to be the result of nothing more than the timing of his announcement – and arguably positions Sanders as a value proposition for PredictIt traders on the outcome for the weeks and, possibly, months ahead.
British bookmakers appear to share that outlook, having applied only marginal revisions on Sanders’ odds of gaining the nomination over the previous two weeks. William Hill are currently quoting Sanders at 10/3, revised upwards from 7/2 at the beginning of May.