Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are currently the bookmakers’ two leading favourites at 3/1 and 5/1 respectively to obtain the Democratic nomination for the 2020 race to the White House.
However, according to betting platform PredictIt – which employs Wisdom-of-the-Crowd methodology to price the odds on future political outcomes – Bernie Sanders has now emerged as outright favourite for the race, priced at 24 cents [equating to an implied probability of 24%] in contrast with British bookies’ own odds of 5/1 [implied probability of 16.7%].
The rift between bookmakers’ prices and the prices emerging from political trades surrounding the Democratic nomination are not the only indication that Sanders may qualify as the leading value bet amidst the large field of declared runners.
The two most recent polls on the subject – one from Harvard Harris, the other from Morning Consult – reflect a similar disparity in the analysis of pollsters, with the former showing Biden ahead by 11 points nationally over Sanders, the latter showing only a two point gap instead.
Two Horse Race?
Whilst Biden hasn’t formally declared his intention to run for the Democratic nomination, most political analysts consider the outcome a foregone conclusion after reports that the former US Vice President has been adding to his staff numbers recently, stating in recent days that “there is a consensus, the most important people in my life want me to run.”
Biden enjoys reflected glory from serving as Obama’s number two in the eyes of many Democrats, and would likely win – like Sanders – in a head-to-head against Trump, according to most pollsters.
However, Kamala Harris – who some argue is currently the real front-runner – would likely lose against Trump, according to the same pollsters. And that observation may mean that much of the Democratic constituency – both “establishment” and “progressive” – may avoid weighing in behind her campaign.