As many as nineteen candidates are now thought to be in the running for the Democratic Party’s nomination of its 2020 Presidential Candidate, although only seven of these have so far formally declared their intention to run.
Whilst bettors and pollsters are largely in agreement about which candidates stand out, there is fundamental disagreement between them when it comes to assessing their relative chances.
Previous candidate for the 2016 nomination, Bernie Sanders, currently ranks as third-favourite according to Wisdom-of-the-Crowd platform PredictIt, which assesses its probabilities through a free-market pricing mechanism: Sander’s chances are currently priced at 16% by traders. British bookmakers, on the other hand, rate the Vermont Senator’s chances as significantly lower with some quoting odds at around 12/1 [implied probability: 8.5%].
Joe Biden is trading slightly ahead of Sanders on 17% with PredictIt, but bookmakers are once again diverging – even amongst themselves – with prices ranging from as low as 4/1 [Betfred] to as high as 7/1 [Skybet].
Harris Emerges as New Favourite Ahead of O’Rourke
However, both bookmakers and PredictIt are in agreement about the current field leader, Senator Kamala Harris, who emerged as outright favourite when she announced her intention to run on January 21st, overtaking previous field leader Beto O’Rourke who is as yet to declare.
Harris’ chances are currently trading at around 21% on PredictIt, whilst most British bookmakers are pricing the junior Senator from California at 3/1 [implied probability: 25%].
O’Rourke, who is expected to regain the favourite spot if he decides to run, is currently priced at 16% on PredictIt and is quoted at 7/2 by Paddy Power [implied probability: 22.2%].
A recent poll from Monmouth University indicates that registered Democratic voters see Biden as their preferred candidate with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren only slightly behind in the ratings. However, the same poll also indicates that most Democrats would prefer to weigh in behind the candidate most likely to defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 race for the White House.