There is only a 33% chance that the UK will exit from the European Union by the recently newly agreed deadline of November 1st, according to the latest data from PredictIt, a Wisdom-of-the-Crowd political outcomes trading platform.
The market, created by PredictIt on April 12, has witnessed a fall on the outcome from an initial opening price of 57c [implied probability 57%] to a current trading price of 33c [implied probability 33%] at the time of writing.
Smarkets traders – who are buying and selling similar outcomes – appear to concur with the analysis of PredictIt traders, and have priced a 2019 calendar year Brexit as having a 35% probability.
Reasons for Dip Remain Unclear
The dip in odds of an execution of Brexit on or before the current deadline is all the more surprising as it appears to have occurred with no significant news on current arrangements between the UK and the EU.
Most traders appear to be convinced of further extensions to the deadline. Commenting on the dip, one remarked “If the government revokes Brexit it would literally tear the Conservative party to pieces. And since France’s opposition to additional extensions feels real to me … this market’s too pessimistic.”
Adding to the confusion surrounding the dip is the recent emergence of the Brexit Party – priced as odds-on favourites by British bookmakers to emerge as the UK’s leading party in the upcoming European elections – which would ordinarily imply a stronger hand for Brexiteers who favour respecting the current deadline.